Grocers and consumers could be hit hard in the run up to Christmas 2026 as continued supply chain disruption will see double-digit price rises for food and household staples, warned the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS).

The latest CIPS Global Pulse Survey for Q3 2026 highlighted what earlier surveys warned – that higher freight and input costs would feed through to businesses and households.

Respondents described production costs becoming “difficult to reconcile with the prices customers are willing to pay”, while expectations of further increases extend across a full range of categories.

Continued disruption, fluctuating fuel prices and instability along key global trade routes are compounding manufacturing costs and the expense of moving goods worldwide.

Almost one in four respondents indicated that food and beverages (23 per cent) would see prices rise by at least 10 per cent in the coming quarter. Some, 36 per cent predicted increases for shipping and logistics.

Dr John Glen, chief economist for the CIPS, said: “Earlier in the year, much of the immediate concern centered on the cost of moving goods that had already been made. Now businesses must manufacture replacement stock using more expensive inputs and then pay more to transport it. That raises the underlying cost of production before a product reaches a warehouse or shop.”

Subscribe to Grocery Gazette for free

Sign up here to get the latest grocery and food news each morning

Additionally, food supply concerns showed how weather, availability of fertilizer and commercial pressure can combine. One respondent reported: “Weather conditions are pushing up the prices and supply quality of vegetables. Rice will be affected by El Nino. Middle East disruption has severely impacted the price and availability of plastics. Prices are rising and retailers do not want to accept the on-costs, putting huge pressure on manufacturers.”

The study also pointed to potential shortages of products as availability and quality fluctuate. The survey did not predict the scale of shortages or a uniform increase in retail prices, but it provides a warning of pressures that could narrow choice and raise household shopping bills.

Glen continued: “Diesel is particularly important because its cost runs through freight, distribution and parts of the production process. When fuel, materials and logistics all become more expensive, a manufacturer cannot solve the problem simply by finding a cheaper delivery route.”

“The squeeze becomes unsustainable when the price customers will accept no longer covers the cost of producing the goods. Businesses then face difficult choices about margins, selling prices and whether production remains viable. The risk is a steady accumulation of price increases and supply disruption through Christmas and into the New Year, with food and manufactured goods particularly exposed.”